زبان انگلیسی  : اصول یادگیری تدریس ترجمه

English is remarkable for its diversity, its propensity to change and be changed.This has resulted in both a variety of forms of English, but also a diversity of cultural contexts within which English is used in daily life. The main areas of development in the use and form of English will undoubtedly come from non-native speakers. How many are there and where are they located? And when and why do they use English instead of their first language? We need to be aware of the different place that English has in the lives of native speakers, second-language users and those who learn it as a foreign language. This section examines the development of English, identifies its historical rivals as world languages and explains the special place that English has in multilingual countries and in the repertoires of multilingual speakers. By showing how our present arose from the past, we will be better equipped to speculate on what the future might hold in store.

The legacy of history
Britain's colonial expansion established the pre-conditions for the global use of English, taking the language from its island birthplace to settlements around the world. The English language has grown up in contact with many others making it a hybrid language which can rapidly evolve to meet new cultural and communicative needs.

English in the 20th century
The story of English in the 20th century has been closely linked to the rise of the US as a superpower which has spread the English language alongside its economic, technological, and cultural influence. In the same period, the international importance of other European languages, especially French, has declined.

Who speaks English?
There are three kinds of English speaker: those who speak it as a first language, those for whom it is a second or additional language, and those who learn it as a foreign language. Native speakers may feel the language 'belongs' to them, but it will be those who speak English as a second or foreign language who will determine its world future.

Language hierarchies
Languages are not equal in political or social status, particularly in multilingual contexts. How does English relate to other languages in a multilingual speaker's repertoire? Why does someone use English rather than a local language? What characteristic patterns are there in the use of English by non-native speakers?

It is, however, possible to understand something of the ways in which languages evolve and how individual speakers adapt their patterns of language use. This gives us some useful indicators as to the conditions under which change occurs, which kinds of change are likely and which unlikely, the reasons why linguistic change happen and the timescales that different kinds of change require. But many factors affecting the use of languages cannot be predicted easily. Major upheavals — war, civil revolution and the breakup of nation states — can cause languages to take unexpected directions, as can the vagaries of fashion amongst the global elite. Most people have opinions, ambitions and anxieties about the future, but few people know how to plan strategically for such unpredictable events.

Strategic planning is not the same as prediction. This section provides a guide to some of the techniques used by strategists and planners to create future-proof‘ models and shows how they can be applied to aspects of language change and global trends in the use of the English language. The section begins with the hazards of extrapolating from current data, examines what insights chaos theory — used for weather forecasting — has provided into the behaviour of complex systems and ends with a discussion of the scenario-building techniques used by transnational companies to ensure their strategic decisions on investment and management stay robust against a range of possible futures.

Futurology
Futurology is one of the oldest of professions, judged with scepticism and awe in equal measure. Although facts and figures are an important ingredient in forecasting, they need to be interpreted with care. This section outlines some basic features of language change and describes common problems with using statistics.

Making sense of trends
One of the key skills in forecasting is being able to recognise an underlying trend and to understand how it might develop in the future. Linguistic and social change rarely happen at a steady and predictable rate. Here we discuss various hazards associated with the interpretation of trend data using examples relevant to the English language.

Students visiting Britain to take English language courses
show an upward trend superimposed on cyclical demand

Predictability or chaos?
The use of English worldwide can be regarded as a 'complex system' in which many factors interact in ways that are not easily predictable. But recent advances in modelling the behaviour of complex systems — such as the weather — could help us understand what patterns may emerge in the global use of English.

Scenario planning
How do forecasters in large companies cope with the uncertainty that the future holds? Can the methods they employ be applied to matters of culture and language as easily as to the price of oil? Scenario building is one methodology used by strategists to put together known facts with imaginative ideas about the future.

It is coincidental that a new millennium should be associated with the construction of a new world-order: the roots of the present period lie at least in the industrial revolution which began in Europe and in particular in Britain. It can be argued that its starting point was even earlier — in Renaissance Europe which gave rise to the nation state and national languages, to modern science and institutional structures.

The fact that the world has reached a transformative moment in a long historical process is remarkable enough, but even more remarkable is the idea that such change is not now a permanent feature of global life: rather it is a consequence of the transition towards a new and more settled world order, with quite different cultural, economic, and linguistic landscapes.

This section deals with key global trends, each of which are now helping transform the need for communication between the world's peoples — from population shifts to economic globalisation; from the invention of the Internet to the restructuring of social inequality. It is these trends which will shape the demand for English in the future, but they interact in complex ways and may produce unexpected cultural and political outcomes.

Demography
How many people will there be in 2050? Where will they live? What age will they be? Population projections exist for all the world's countries and answers to such demographic questions can help us make broad predictions about a question at the heart of this study: who will speak what languages in the 21st century?

The world economy
The economic shape of the world is rapidly changing. The world as a whole is getting richer, but the proportion of wealth created and spent by the west will decrease markedly in the next few decades. This will alter the relationship between the west and the rest of the world — especially Asia — and will change the economic attractiveness of other major languages.

The role of technology
Advances in technology in the 19th century helped 'kick start' the long wave of economic growth which is yet to reach some parts of the world. Technological change transforms the spaces in which we work and live, but it is difficult to predict precisely how technology will shape our future global patterns of language use.

Globalisation
World economies and cultures are becoming increasingly interconnected and interdependent, politically, socially and technologically: 'complexification' and 'cross border activity' and 'process re-engineering' have been the buzz words of the 1990s. Here we examine the impact of economic globalisation on patterns of communication.

The immaterial economy
The world's output is getting lighter. Within a few decades, many more people will be employed in service industries which are rapidly globalising. New forms of global teleworking are emerging and a proportion of the value of most goods is produced through language-related activity.

Cultural flows
Language has been regarded since the Renaissance in terms of territory. Statistics about language, culture, and economy, collected by international bodies, have been based on nation states, populations of speakers, and relative sizes of economies. But chaos theory suggests the concept of flow may be better suited to understanding language in a borderless world.

Global inequality
As developing economies mature and per capita income rises, so social and economic inequalities also seem to grow: those with access to the means of wealth benefit but those without such advantages become poorer. Prožciency in English may yet be one of the mechanisms for dividing the haves from the have-nots.

But what of the ways in which general economic, demographic, and technological trends affect peoples' lives and, in particular, their everyday use of language? There is virtually no context in human life where language does not play an important part. Whether in employment, at home with the family, or enjoying oneself in leisure periods, language plays an intimate role in constructing relationships and identities as well as enabling people to get things done.

Establishing the practical consequences of general trends is an important part of social forecasting and also the most problematic. It is a great deal easier to play with numbers than to understand how they might change the world. When we look more closely at individual cases, we can see how global trends can have many different, and contradictory, local effects. Development by no means takes a straight line, and the existence of counter-trends and different ways in which global trends are accommodated and reshaped by local conditions and cultures, makes prediction hazardous.

The next section identifies selected contexts where patterns of language are changing and explores the impact of the general trends identižed in section 3.

The workplace
Earlier we described how trends in technology, the global economy, and demography hold implications for our working lives. Here we examine the implications of these trends for English language skills required by the new globalised workforces.

Education and training
English already shares the languages curriculum in Europe with French, German, and Spanish, alongside a variety of other languages from Russian to Urdu. Is the same true of schools worldwide? And what role will English play outside school? English medium teaching is permitting rapid internationalisation of higher education and adult training.

The global media
Not so long ago, the media industry was bound by the territorial limits of the nation state. Today, the media is an international industry, competing to reach audiences with disposable incomes in every world region. Is English required to reach these massive global audiences?

Youth culture
The 'baby boom' in the west gave rise to a demographic hump which had profound consequences in public policy, the economy, and culture. Now the baby boomers of the west are replaced by those in the non-western world who may have different cultural orientations and aspirations.

Internet communication
Computer technology has transformed the way people interact both locally and globally. Now we are at the edge of a new era of personal and group communications. Will the Internet remain the flagship of global English? And if so, will it be English as we know it today?

Time and place
Discussions of globalisation emphasise the 'annihilation of time and space' brought about by new communications technology, but there are some respects in which both will continue to be significant factors shaping economic, political, and cultural formations in the 21st century.

Three global time zones are emerging, within which international
trade and communication will be focused. Will English maintain
its position as the global franca in each zone in the 21st century?

World English
Will a single world standard for English develop?
Will English give Britain a special economic advantage?
Will the British 'brand' of English play an important role in the 21st century?
Which languages will benefit from language shift?

Rival languages
Which languages may rival English as a world lingua franca in the 21st century?
What gives a language global influence and makes it 'world language'?

English as a transitional phenomenon
Will the demand for English in the world continue to rise at its present rate?
Will satellite TV channels bring English into every home, creating a global audio-visual culture?
Will English continue to be associated with leading-edge technology?
Will economic modernisation continue to require English for technology and skills transfer?
What impact will the Internet have on the global use of English?

Managing the future
Can anything be done to influence the future of English?
A 'Brent Spar' scenario for English
The need for an ethical framework for ELT
Ways forward

1   Major world languages according to the engco model
2   Major international domains of English
3   German academics claiming English is their working language
4   Native speakers of English
5   Second-language speakers of English
6    Countries in transition from EFL to L2 status
7    Native-speaker numbers for major world languages in 2050
8   The 10 largest cities in the year 2000
9   Estimated economic strength of languages
10   Estimates of Gross Language Product of major languages
11   Major languages by Traded GLP
12   Seven ages of the technological economy
13   Indonesian languages likely to be endangered
14   European % viewing of international channels
15   Languages available on British satellite channels 1996
16   Estimated millions of speakers aged 15-24 1995
17   Estimated millions of speakers aged 15-24 2050
18   Languages of home pages on the Web
19   Global influence of major languages

Figures

1   Will English remain the world's language?
2   The proportion of the world's books annually published
3   The three circles of English according to Kachru
4   Showing the three circles of English as overlapping
5   The branches of world English
6   A language hierarchy for India
7   A language hierarchy for the European Union
8   The world language-hierarchy
9   Lexical diffusion of a sound change
10   Singular verbs used with collective noun subjects
11   Projected increase in Internet users
12   Cyclical patterns in student enrolments
13   Monthly electricity consumption
14   Young native-speakers of English and Malay
15   Forecast of social value changes amongst 'trend setters'
16   Forecasting, scenario planning, and hope
17   World population growth
18   Demographic estimates of first-language speakers
19   The ethnic composition of the US population
20   Length of time taken to double per capita income
21   Proportions of world wealth in 1990
22   Estimated shares of world wealth in 2050
23   Language-engineering products available for major languages
24   Falling cost of making a transatlantic telephone-call
25   Distribution of the 500 largest global corporations
26   Traditional import/export model of English
27   Post-modern/globalised model of English
28   US employment by sector
29   Composition of Gross World Product 1990-2050
30   Development of world tourism 1950-1990
31   Outgoing telephone minutes by country
32   Teledistance of selected countries from Britain in 1997
33   Half of the world's languages in the Asia Pacific region
34   Geographic distribution of the 6,703 living languages
35   Proportions of all school students studying modern languages
36   BBC World Service coverage in 1996-7
37   The trading days of the three global financial centres
38   The world language-hierarchy in 2050?
39   Estimates of first-language speakers of English to 2050

Case studies
1   World print in Hong Kong
2   Singapore Straits Times
3   Internationalisation of education in Malaysia
4   MTV
5   Sign of the times
6   Automatic translation
7   The UK Open University's Singapore programme